Climate Risk Intelligence

Property risk is changing. We measure it.

The only NSW property platform combining statutory planning data with climate projection modelling. Deterministic composite scoring — no AI interpretation, no guesswork.

What this tool does

Checks whether your property falls within government-mapped hazard zones for flood, bushfire, coastal erosion, and fire history, and shows projected temperature changes from NSW climate modelling (NARCliM 2.0). Combines these into a single score out of 100.

What this tool does not do

It does not predict whether your property will flood, burn, or be damaged. It does not assess your building's construction, resilience, or insurability. It is not an insurance assessment, engineering report, or financial advice. The score measures exposure to mapped hazards — not probability of loss.

Where the data comes from

NSW Planning Portal (flood overlays), NSW Rural Fire Service (bushfire prone land), SEPP Resilience & Hazards 2021 (coastal zones), NPWS (fire history), and NARCliM 2.0 via AdaptNSW (heat projections). All government sources, queried live.

Five hazards assessed independently

Current mapping

Flood

EPI flood overlay status, council flood study ARI depths, and satellite water detection.

NSW Planning Portal + SES flood studies

Current mapping

Bushfire

RFS Bush Fire Prone Land classification and estimated BAL band from vegetation proximity.

NSW Rural Fire Service BFPL dataset

Current mapping

Coastal

SEPP Resilience and Hazards coastal zone mapping. Erosion and inundation exposure.

SEPP (Resilience and Hazards) 2021

Historical observed

Fire History

Historical fire scar records from NPWS. Proximity to burn areas over the past 20 years.

NSW National Parks fire history

Climate projection

Heat Trajectory

Projected temperature change to 2099 under SSP2.45 and SSP3.70 scenarios. 4km grid resolution.

NARCliM 2.0 (ACCESS-ESM1-5 GCM)

Compound Interactions

Bushfire + extreme heat. Flood + coastal inundation. Hazards that overlap create disproportionate risk — the composite score captures these interactions.

Interaction bonus scoring model

What you get: sample assessment

This is a real output for a specific property near Windsor, Hawkesbury LGA — one of the most multi-hazard-exposed regions in NSW. Every number comes from a government dataset. Nothing is estimated or approximated.

Composite Climate Risk Score

67 / 100

Very High

Near Windsor, Hawkesbury LGA

Methodology v1.0

Flood
20 / 20

Property is within a flood planning area (EPI overlay). The Hawkesbury-Nepean is one of the highest flood-risk catchments in Australia — 90,000+ people live below the probable maximum flood level.

Source: NSW Planning Portal EPI Flood layers

Bushfire
20 / 20

Bush Fire Prone Land — the property is within an area mapped by the NSW Rural Fire Service. Construction must comply with AS 3959 and may require a formal BAL assessment before DA lodgement.

Source: NSW RFS Bushfire Prone Land Map

Fire History
12 / 20

2 recorded fire events at this location. Areas with repeated burn history face higher risk of future fire — vegetation regrowth creates fuel loads that accumulate over 5-10 year cycles.

Source: NSW National Parks & Wildlife Service fire history dataset

Heat Trajectory
18 / 20

Days over 35°C projected to increase from 14/yr to 52/yr by 2090 under high emissions (SSP3-7.0). Western Sydney is one of the fastest-heating regions in the country — Penrith already records the highest urban temperatures in Australia.

Baseline

14 days/yr

2050

28 days/yr

2070

39 days/yr

2090

52 days/yr

Source: NARCliM 2.0 (AdaptNSW), ACCESS-ESM1.5, SSP3-7.0, 4km resolution

Coastal
0 / 20

Not within any SEPP (Resilience and Hazards) 2021 coastal hazard zone. Inland properties are not exposed to coastal erosion or tidal inundation — but may still face riverine flood risk (assessed separately above).

Source: SEPP (Resilience and Hazards) 2021 coastal management layers

Compound hazard interactions detected

Bushfire + Fire History — repeated burn = higher structural risk+5
Bushfire + Heat — rising temperatures dry vegetation, increasing fire intensity+5
Flood + Heat — extreme heat drives intense convective storms+3

Climate impacts are cascading and compounding across systems (IPCC AR6, high confidence). Properties exposed to multiple hazards face disproportionate risk — a bushfire-prone property in a heating region is not simply “bushfire + heat” but a fundamentally different risk profile.

Mean Temperature Change

+2.1°C

Projected increase in mean near-surface temperature by 2090 under SSP3-7.0. This shifts the entire distribution — what is currently a “hot year” becomes the new average.

NARCliM 2.0 · ACCESS-ESM1.5 · 4km grid

Precipitation Trend

-0.3 mm/day

A drying trend means less frequent rainfall — but when rain does come, it tends to be more intense. This paradox increases both drought and flash flood risk simultaneously.

NARCliM 2.0 · ACCESS-ESM1.5 · 4km grid

How to read this score

Low

1–20

Moderate

21–40

High

41–60

Very High

61–80

Extreme

81–100

Equal weighting (V1): each hazard contributes up to 20 points. This is a deliberate simplifying assumption — we do not claim flood risk is “equal” to heat risk. V2 will weight by projected loss severity using APRA and ICA actuarial data.

Deterministic: the same address always produces the same score. There is no AI interpretation, no machine learning model, no probabilistic element. The score is a direct function of which government spatial layers intersect the property and the NARCliM projection at the nearest 4km grid cell.

Not a prediction: the score measures hazard exposure, not the probability of loss. A score of 67 means the property is exposed to multiple overlapping climate hazards — not that there is a 67% chance of damage. Property-specific factors (construction type, floor height, vegetation management) are not included.

Why these hazards matter — the national picture

These are not PlotDetect numbers. They are from APRA, the Insurance Council of Australia, and the IPCC — the institutions that set prudential standards and measure catastrophe losses.

+240%

Projected flood loss increase by 2050

Flood is the most climate-sensitive weather peril. 50% of all losses are concentrated in just 10% of regions.

APRA Mind the Gap 2026, p.14

1 in 4

Households uninsured by 2050

Up from 1 in 7 today. That is roughly 40,000 households losing home insurance coverage every year.

APRA Mind the Gap 2026, p.4

$16B

Annual weather losses by 2050

Up from $7B today under current policies. A 129% increase in national weather-related losses in 26 years.

APRA Mind the Gap 2026, p.4

7.2%

Annual home insurance premium growth

Versus wage growth of 3.1%. Premiums are rising more than twice as fast as incomes — and NSW levies add ~18% on top.

APRA Mind the Gap 2026, p.7

$164–226B

Coastal infrastructure exposed to 1.1m SLR

Including 187,000–274,000 residential buildings and 27,000–35,000km of roads.

IPCC AR6 WGII Ch11, Table Box 11.6.2

77%

Severe flood risk properties uninsured

186,000 of the 242,000 highest-risk residential dwellings currently lack flood insurance.

ICA Catastrophe Resilience 2024-25, p.3

Why climate risk scoring matters now

Insurance repricing

Insurers are repricing property risk based on climate exposure. Properties with unassessed hazards face premium increases or coverage withdrawal.

APRA climate risk self-assessment

APRA requires financial institutions to assess climate risk exposure. Property portfolios need hazard data at the individual address level.

Pre-purchase due diligence

A property in a flood zone that is also on bush fire prone land with projected heat increase has a fundamentally different risk profile. Buyers need to see the compound picture.

What is available now

Live now

Climate Risk Score

Free

Composite score out of 100 for any NSW address. Five hazard categories with compound interaction analysis. Deterministic — same address always produces the same score.

Coming soon

Climate Risk Report

$99

Full NARCliM trajectories, compound hazard analysis, and professional PDF. Suitable for insurance assessments and property due diligence.

Available after PlotDetect Pty Ltd incorporation and professional indemnity insurance.

Register interest →

Data provenance

NARCliM 2.0 — NSW and ACT Regional Climate Modelling project. SSP2.45 (intermediate) and SSP3.70 (high emissions) scenarios. ACCESS-ESM1-5 global climate model downscaled to 4km grid resolution.

NSW Rural Fire Service — Bush Fire Prone Land dataset, updated annually.

NSW Planning Portal — EPI flood overlay data queried live via layerintersect API.

NPWS — Historical fire scar polygons from National Parks and Wildlife Service.

SEPP (Resilience and Hazards) 2021 — Coastal management SEPP zones.

Check any NSW address

Climate risk scores are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, insurance, legal, or property advice. Scores reflect publicly available government spatial data and climate projection modelling — they are not a professional risk assessment and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent expert advice. Always consult qualified professionals before making property, insurance, or investment decisions. PlotDetect does not provide financial product advice within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) s766B. Past hazard exposure does not guarantee future outcomes. Climate projections are modelled scenarios, not predictions.